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Big problems are coming our way!

The global warming of plus 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels was exceeded again in 2024 and we are very quickly moving towards the feared plus 2.0°C.

In the first graph we see the existing developments and the calculated smoothed temperature increase resulting from the planned economic growth in the second graph.

                   

A summary graphic might makes the drama more clearly visible. In this summary graph we can see that economic development (purple line) and the current temperature (red line) are developing parallel to each other. So on the one hand we can see the exact connection between economic growth and global warming, this is mainly due to the senseless mass production of inferior and short-lived products, but on the other hand we can also see how the temperature has so far lagged somewhat behind economic development, this was mainly due to the compensating effect of the world's oceans.

The water temperature is usually much lower than the air temperature, we know this from public swimming pools, so the world's oceans were able to absorb the air temperature well and thus reduce the air temperature. But little by little the oceans charged up and now have a temperature of over 30°C. The Mediterranean in particular is very warm and the temperature is stored there for a very long time, including over the winter. Now the oceans can no longer compensate for the global warming. The end of the temperature compensation was actually not supposed to be reached until 2050, but it appears that the end has already been reached much earlier. The reason for this assumption is the extremely rapid increase in flood disasters.

Century Floods, a new tipping point has been reached

A new worrying phenomenon are the so-called “floods of the century”, which probably began around 1993, and since then there have been one of these alleged “once-in-a-century events” almost every year.

From 2020 onwards the events have increased more and more, instead of one event there are now several events per year, in 2020 and 2021 there are eight such incidents each.

But in 2022 we will have several so-called "century floods" every year and practically everywhere in the world, there are suddenly over 36 incidents in total.

2023 was then unexpectedly the year of the "floods of the century", hundreds of thousands were left homeless, there were many deaths, 56 incidents were recorded around the world

2024 will probably be similarly catastrophic, there have been 38 incidents so far, the events are the most severe so far, there were around 400 hundred of deaths and just as many injuries and the disaster season is only just beginning in many countries.

The correlation is clear: the oceans are now charged to 30°C and the temperature trapped under the CO2 is reflected directly in the air, the compensating power of the oceans is no longer there. As a result, the surface water evaporates much faster and the hot air can absorb much more water, which then falls as heavy rain somewhere where the wind carries the clouds.

We have unfortunately to accept that these disasters are becoming more and more frequent, more severe and affecting more and larger areas.

 

The results of the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro

Nothing in the pipeline except vague statements

The heads of state and government of the leading industrialized and emerging countries want to work towards effective taxation of the super-rich in the future. They want try to work together to ensure that very wealthy private individuals are taxed effectively. Mechanisms should be developed to combat tax avoidance.

We will set a tax on the rich at X% of income or something similar? Nothing!

A global alliance against hunger and poverty has been launched. There is no lack of knowledge or resources, but rather a lack of political will to fight hunger, says the final declaration.

We will pay X trillion dollars to alleviate hunger or something similar? Nothing!

The 20 industrialized and emerging countries also reaffirmed the internationally agreed goal of limiting global warming to *1.5 degrees. There are also only vague statements on the question of financing. The heads of state and government mention an unnamed sum of trillions of dollars that should come from various sources.

 

COP 29 final declaration

Once again, just SpongeBob SquarePants

In the dispute at the UN climate conference in Baku over increasing climate aid for poorer countries, the presidency has presented a resolution.

The countries have agreed on a new financial target of 300 billion US dollars per year, which is to be achieved from 2035. The rest is to come from so-called environmental aid banks, but without any specific amounts.

Other points of contention remain unresolved in the ten-page paper. For example, there is no clear determination on the question of whether only industrialized countries will continue to be donors or whether wealthy emerging countries such as China and the rich Gulf states will also be encouraged to make payments.

 

The last GCP Report

A new record value for CO2 emissions will also be set in 2023

The Global Carbon Project (GCP) published its annual carbon dioxide emissions and atmospheric CO2 levels for 2023 in December.

Accordingly, CO2 emissions have increased again by 1.1 percent compared to 2022.



Increasing emissions are measured in China and India, while they only decreased very slightly in the USA and the EU. A slight decrease of just 0.4 percent was also noted in the rest of the world. Conclusion: Global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels such as petroleum, coal and natural gas continue to rise exponentially.

At the same time, deforestation and El Nino conditions contributed to land vegetation absorbing less CO2 this year.

Fires and wars also contributed to rising emissions.

At the same time, the oceans are absorbing less and less CO2.

Overall, global emissions are still increasing exponentially. The measures decided at the climate conference are not sufficient for the necessary climate protection. Even tripling the number of nuclear power plants, which would only be completed in ten years, cannot stop this trend.

Technologies for the subsequent removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (direct air capture and carbon storage) have so far only absorbed 0.01 billion tons of CO2. No solution can be expected from this side either.

The El Niño effect, fires and the decline in the ability to store CO2 and the temperature of the world's oceans will probably lead to an even faster accumulation of greenhouse gases and increasing Surfacetemoeratures in the future.

The oceans will absorb around 10.8 billion tons CO2 this year and will once again act as a buffer for atmospheric CO2 levels, but the buffer effect is decreasing exponentially. Soils and vegetation on land also absorbed around 10.4 billion tonnes less CO2 this year than in previous years.

Land use changes and deforestation will release around 4.2 billion tons of CO2 in 2023.

In total, fossil emissions and land use changes add up to global CO2 emissions of 40.2 billion tons by 2023.

 

The current situation:

The temperature of +1.5° Celsius was exceeded again in 2024.

According to researchers, six of nine planetary boundaries have already been far exceeded.

None of the targeted climate targets can be achieved in the foreseeable future and, in all probability, will not be pursued any further.
 

They say more effort is needed, but wherever you look you not only get no results, but only further deteriorations.

• A tripling of nuclear power is simply more than negated by increasing consumption, for example electric vehicles.
   
• Direct air capture and carbon storage is mathematically impossible, effective plants would be as big as Tokyo and we would currently need around 40 of them.
   
• The restructuring of industries is not making any progress because they have to continue to generate exponential increases in profits.
   
• Land use changes and deforestation continue to increase.
   
• The buffering effect of the seas is rapidly decreasing and the vegetation on land also absorbs less and less CO2.
   
• Instead, more and more fossil fuels continue to be consumed.
   
• Real solutions are hardly available, especially when shipping traffic is increasing exponentially; small successes are immediately negated by increases in traffic.
   
• Now the so-called “green gases” are to be delivered entirely via shipping.
   
• It is to be feared that nothing will change in the current situation until 2050. But then it will be too late because than nature's own dynamics will make any action ineffective.
   

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