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Big problems are upon us!
The World Weather Organization in Geneva reports that surface warming of plus 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is expected to be exceeded as early as 2026. Although this immediately puts the result into perspective again by suggesting that the value could again be below, in the following years, but I don't believe in that. I am referring to each country's individual social and environmental reports and the IPCC's new 2021 environmental report. The data it contains suggests a different view. The 1.5°C limit is actually expected to be reached in 2025 and exceeded in 2026. After that the temperature will continue to rise. The direct connection with our economy is shown in the graphs below.
A summary graphic might make the drama more visible. Exactly because capital through interest and/or yield exponentially grows, has to be produced more and more, which then makes the earth's surface warmer and warmer. And because there is hardly any product with real 0% emissions and, to be honest, never will, we have to reckon with the exponential melting of all ice surfaces and thus a rise in sea level of up to 11m by 2100. The previous assumption that the melting of the poles and glaciers would take 1000 years should be dismissed as wishful thinking. All previous projections were exceeded many times over. An exponential development also starts with the melt.
Every year, the major UN climate conference COP 29 is prepared in Bonn, which is taking place this year in Baku, Azerbaijan.
In November, a new target for so-called "climate aid" for the so-called "developing countries" for the period from 2025 onwards is to be decided there. But the negotiations are already considered to have failed because the main perpetrators and beneficiaries of global warming and rising ocean water do not want to pay for the damage they have caused.
The current situation:
The temperature of +1.5° Celsius will be exceeded again in 2024.
According to researchers, six of nine planetary boundaries have already been far exceeded.
None of the targeted climate targets can be achieved in the foreseeable future and, in all probability, will not be pursued any further.
The new GCP Report
A new record value for CO2 emissions will also be set in 2023
The Global Carbon Project (GCP) published its annual carbon dioxide emissions and atmospheric CO2 levels for 2023 in December.
Accordingly, CO2 emissions have increased again by 1.1 percent compared to 2022.
Increasing emissions are measured in China and India, while they only decreased very slightly in the USA and the EU. A slight decrease of just 0.4 percent was also noted in the rest of the world. Conclusion: Global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels such as petroleum, coal and natural gas continue to rise exponentially.
At the same time, deforestation and El Nino conditions contributed to land vegetation absorbing less CO2 this year.
Fires and wars also contributed to rising emissions.
At the same time, the oceans are absorbing less and less CO2.
Overall, global emissions are still increasing exponentially. The measures decided at the climate conference are not sufficient for the necessary climate protection. Even tripling the number of nuclear power plants, which would only be completed in ten years, cannot stop this trend.
Technologies for the subsequent removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (direct air capture and carbon storage) have so far only absorbed 0.01 billion tons of CO2. No solution can be expected from this side either.
The El Niņo effect, fires and the decline in the ability to store CO2 and the temperature of the world's oceans will probably lead to an even faster accumulation of greenhouse gases and increasing Surfacetemoeratures in the future.
The oceans will absorb around 10.8 billion tons CO2 this year and will once again act as a buffer for atmospheric CO2 levels, but the buffer effect is decreasing exponentially. Soils and vegetation on land also absorbed around 10.4 billion tonnes less CO2 this year than in previous years.
Land use changes and deforestation will release around 4.2 billion tons of CO2 in 2023.
In total, fossil emissions and land use changes add up to global CO2 emissions of 40.2 billion tons by 2023.
They say more effort is needed, but wherever you look you not only get no results, but only further deteriorations.
- A tripling of nuclear power is simply more than negated by increasing consumption, for example electric vehicles.
- Direct air capture and carbon storage is mathematically impossible, effective plants would be as big as Tokyo and we would currently need around 40 of them.
- The restructuring of industries is not making any progress because they have to continue to generate exponential increases in profits.
- Land use changes and deforestation continue to increase.
- The buffering effect of the seas is rapidly decreasing and the vegetation on land also absorbs less and less CO2.
- Instead, more and more fossil fuels continue to be consumed.
- Real solutions are hardly available, especially when shipping traffic is increasing exponentially; small successes are immediately negated by increases in traffic.
- Now the so-called “green gases” are to be delivered entirely via shipping.
- It is to be feared that nothing will change in the current situation until 2050. But then it will be too late because than nature's own dynamics will make any action ineffective.
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